Global baby bust


нашел пару статеек. одна говорит, что население Земли к 2050 достигнет 9.5 миллиардов и потом начнет уменьшаться. вместе с тем вся экономическая сила перейдет к развивающимся странам ближнего востока (там много молодых людей)
во второй говорится, что если страна станет еще богаче, то рост пойдет по новой (рост населения)
The New Population Bomb
The Four Megatrends
That Will Change the World
Jack A. Goldstone
Forty-two years ago, the biologist Paul Ehrlich warned in The
Population Bomb that mass starvation would strike in the 1970s and
1980s, with the world’s population growth outpacing the production
of food and other critical resources.Thanks to innovations and eªorts
such as the “green revolution” in farming and the widespread adoption
of family planning, Ehrlich’s worst fears did not come to pass. In fact,
since the 1970s, global economic output has increased and fertility has
fallen dramatically, especially in developing countries.
The United Nations Population Division now projects that global
population growth will nearly halt by 2050. By that date, the world’s population
will have stabilized at 9.15 billion people, according to the
“medium growth” variant of the un’s authoritative population database
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. (Today’s global
population is 6.83 billion.) Barring a cataclysmic climate crisis or a
complete failure to recover from the current economic malaise, global
economic output is expected to increase by two to three percent per
year, meaning that global income will increase far more than population
over the next four decades.
But twenty-first-century international security will depend less on
how many people inhabit the world than on how the global population
is composed and distributed: where populations are declining and
where they are growing, which countries are relatively older and which
are more youthful, and how demographics will influence population
movements across regions.
These elements are not well recognized or widely understood. A
recent article in The Economist, for example, cheered the decline in
global fertility without noting other vital demographic developments.
Indeed, the same un data cited by The Economist reveal four
historic shifts that will fundamentally alter the world’s population
over the next four decades: the relative demographic weight of the
world’s developed countries will drop by nearly 25 percent, shifting
economic power to the developing nations; the developed countries’
labor forces will substantially age and decline, constraining economic
growth in the developed world and raising the demand for immigrant
workers;most of the world’s expected population growth will increasingly
be concentrated in today’s poorest, youngest, and most heavily Muslim
countries, which have a dangerous lack of quality education, capital,
and employment opportunities; and, for the first time in history, most
of the world’s population will become urbanized, with the largest
urban centers being in the world’s poorest countries, where policing,
sanitation, and health care are often scarce.
Taken together, these trends will pose challenges every bit as
alarming as those noted by Ehrlich. Coping with them will require
nothing less than a major reconsideration of the world’s basic global
governance structures.
это тока введение, там еще на 10 страниц обсуждения
Advances in development reverse fertility declines
Mikko Myrskyla¨1, Hans-Peter Kohler1 & Francesco C. Billari2
During the twentieth century, the global population has gone
through unprecedented increases in economic and social development
that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility
and population growth rates1,2. The negative association of fertility
with economic and social development has therefore become one
of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical
regularities in the social sciences1–3. As a result of this close
connection between development and fertility decline, more than
half of the global population now lives in regions with belowreplacement
fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman)4. In many
highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also
been deemed irreversible5–9. Rapid population ageing, and in some
cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore
become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge10.
Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses
of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI
a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship
between fertility and development as the global population
entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues
to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our
analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development
can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative
development–fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the
HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly
developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result
of continued economic and social development has the potential to
slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the
social and economic problems that have been associated with
the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.
опять же введение в статью в Nature


baby bust
Педобир одобряе.


нашел пару статеек
Там ссылаются на С. Капицу и его статью в Усп.Физ. Наук про то что население земли росло по закону N ~ 1/(2025-t где N - число жителей планеты, t- время в годах.


там нет ссылки на капицу


С. Капицу и его статью в Усп.Физ. Наук про то что население земли росло по закону N ~ 1/(2025-t)
он был фанатом зомби апокалипсиса и считал что он наступит в 2025?
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